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Does LeBron James and the Lakers have much more time left?
After suffering another humiliating defeat, this time against the Atlanta Hawks, LeBron James, the superstar of the Los Angeles Lakers, posted an hourglass emoji on Twitter. This cryptic message adds to a career filled with such enigmatic expressions for a team currently facing turmoil.
Dave McMenamin, a trusted source on LeBron James, contemplated various interpretations of the recent tweet by the Los Angeles Lakers superstar. The consensus was that the tweet hinted at time running out for the Lakers to rectify their issues before it becomes too late for LeBron James.
On December 13, the Lakers held a record of 15-10, securing the fifth spot in the Western Conference. Despite a struggling offense ranked 21st in net rating (112.1 points per 100 possessions), their defense, ranking seventh in net rating (allowing 111 points per 100 possessions), instilled hope for another run to the conference finals. However, the team has since slumped to a 9-15 record, performing worse than even tanking teams. Over the past seven weeks, both the offense and defense plummeted, placing the Lakers in the NBA’s bottom 10 in net rating (tied for 22nd), conceding 118.9 points per 100 possessions.
The shift in performance coincided with reports of a strained relationship between coach Darvin Ham and the Lakers’ locker room, raising doubts about the coach’s standing. Subsequently, the Lakers have allowed 125 or more points in 10 of their 15 games, surrendering a league-worst 20 points per game off turnovers. Their playing style, simultaneously among the NBA’s fastest and slowest, further suggests a team disconnect.
The road ahead doesn’t promise relief, with the Lakers facing one of the NBA’s toughest remaining schedules. This includes challenging matchups against the Boston Celtics and New York, a demanding six-game road trip in March, and encounters with the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Timberwolves and defending champions Denver Nuggets.
In a bid to bolster their playoff chances, the Lakers are reportedly attempting to trade their remaining assets. This mirrors their strategy from the previous year when they acquired players like Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley before the deadline. Notably, Beasley is currently excelling with the Milwaukee Bucks, shooting 45.5% from 3-point range, while the others are being actively pursued in the ongoing search for improvement.
Contributing to Tuesday’s 138-122 victory against the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell’s performance served as a response to reports suggesting the Lakers’ front office is aiming to trade him in a deal for Atlanta’s Dejounte Murray. Fans question the utility of Russell for a team that deems Murray a mismatch. A potential solution could involve a third team, like the Brooklyn Nets, facilitating a trade between Atlanta and Los Angeles. However, it remains uncertain if the Hawks are interested in such a scenario.
Limited by assets, the Lakers possess only their 2029 first-round draft pick, along with swaps, seconds, and rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino (No. 17 pick averaging 1.9 points per game on 23/9/64 shooting splits) to offer. This might not be sufficient for the acquisition of the highly sought-after player. The Lakers are hesitant to include Austin Reaves in any trade, but market dynamics will ultimately determine the feasibility of their best offer, whether for Murray alone or involving multiple moves at the margins.
The looming question is, what lies ahead for the Lakers? Another play-in tournament appearance? It’s been four years since their championship win in the bubble, where LeBron James and Anthony Davis were well-rested. The current Lakers, with James and Davis on the court, have a plus-1.2 points per 100 possessions, equivalent to the Houston Rockets with their top players. However, without James, they have a minus-2.7 points per 100 possessions, akin to the Utah Jazz. Currently sitting at the 9th spot in the West standings (24-25), the Lakers face competition from the Jazz (24-25) and the Rockets (22-25).
Considering potential trades at the deadline, if the Jazz or Rockets secure Murray or high-level role players, championship contention seems unlikely for either team. The belief in the Lakers finding a path to contention relies on the continued excellence of James and Davis, both future Hall of Famers consistently delivering All-NBA level performances.
Analyzing the Lakers’ performance over the last five years with LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the court reveals a notable decline in both offensive and defensive rankings:
- 2019-20: Offense (1st) • Defense (1st)
- 2020-21: Offense (8th) • Defense (1st)
- 2021-22: Offense (25th) • Defense (13th)
- 2022-23: Offense (14th) • Defense (1st)
- 2023-24: Offense (15th) • Defense (16th)
What stands out is the departure from their historical strength in leading the league in defense. The current season’s performance closely resembles the 2021-22 campaign, where the Lakers faced a disappointing outcome with 33 wins and failure to make the play-in tournament. The team is no longer dominating defensively, as a 39-year-old LeBron James cannot consistently shoulder the necessary burden on both ends. The roster mix includes players with a focus on either offense (e.g., Russell) or defense (e.g., Jarred Vanderbilt), and their key two-way addition, Gabe Vincent, is currently injured.
In their pursuit of strengthening the roster, the Lakers have targeted players such as Dejounte Murray, Bruce Brown, Alex Caruso, and Dorian Finney-Smith, seeking a balance between offensive and defensive contributions. However, constraints on their trade package limit them to potentially acquiring one top target, according to reports.
There is a recognition that the current trade market offers few impactful players, prompting speculation that the Lakers might need to exercise patience. The prospect of a closing lineup featuring James, Davis, Reaves, Brown, and a healthy Vincent raises questions about the team’s championship potential. While this lineup includes two All-Stars and contributors from the previous NBA Finals, it heavily relies on James and Davis to anchor the team at a championship level.
The Lakers’ recent success in the in-season tournament, where lineups featuring James and Davis outscored opponents by 20.4 points per 100 possessions, provides optimism. However, it’s essential to note that this success occurred in a limited seven-game stretch against teams with various levels of strength, including less-than-full-strength opponents.
To secure a spot in the NBA Finals, the Lakers face a challenging path, involving must-win play-in tournament games and subsequent best-of-seven series against formidable Western Conference opponents like Minnesota, Denver, and potentially the Oklahoma City Thunder or L.A. Clippers. The ultimate goal is to reach the NBA Finals, where a matchup with the Celtics could await.
The fact that LeBron James and Anthony Davis have only missed eight games collectively feels like a minor miracle, given their average of 30 absences in the previous three seasons. James is approaching a career-high in minutes played, and Davis ranks among the top players in minutes played this season. As they embark on a 33-game sprint to secure a spot in the play-in tournament, the Lakers aim to integrate multiple rotation players and elevate their performance against formidable opponents in the upcoming rounds.
The challenges ahead seem daunting, especially considering the physical demands on James and Davis, but we’ve witnessed James defy doubters, including the relentless march of time, on numerous occasions. The use of the hourglass emoji in a recent tweet raises a pertinent question: What if, in a more realistic scenario than ever before, time has indeed run out for James and the Lakers?
Drawing parallels to James’ experiences in Miami and Cleveland, where he left after exhausting every team resource to address surrounding issues, the Lakers appear on the verge of a similar situation this season. The upcoming trade deadline may be crucial, and James may require more assistance than ever before. If the current plan doesn’t succeed, and the Lakers can’t navigate the challenging path to their 11th Finals appearance, they face tough decisions. Options include potentially packaging Austin Reaves and three first-round picks for another attempt at acquiring a third star or assembling a rotation of minimum-paid veterans, similar to the strategy employed by the Suns in the past.
As James contemplates his future, he must decide between entering free agency or exercising his $51.4 million option to continue playing in Los Angeles. This decision marks a crucial juncture in his career, where he must assess whether he can still lead a championship-worthy team or if it’s time to join one.
