The Red Sox are relying on improbable situations to climb out of the AL East’s bottom position

You might wake up tomorrow to find $25,000 on your doorstep along with a note saying “have some fun.” You could stumble upon cobalt deposits in your backyard and sell them to Apple. You might even uncover unclaimed property and an abandoned bank account by checking FindMassMoney.com.

While these are all ideal situations and not entirely implausible, relying on them to plan your life might not be the most realistic approach.

Regrettably, it appears that the Red Sox are adopting a similarly optimistic but uncertain strategy for the 2024 season and beyond.

There exists a scenario in which the Red Sox contend for a playoff spot and the American League East title, ultimately establishing themselves as the next dominant homegrown team in baseball. Consider the likelihood of the following:

• Lucas Giolito returning to his All-Star level performance.
• Young pitchers Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford evolving into dependable No. 2 or 3 starters.
• Newly strengthened right-hander Garrett Whitlock making 30 starts.
• Shortstop Trevor Story maintaining good health and rediscovering his offensive prowess.
• First baseman Triston Casas elevating his game to become an All-Star slugger.
• Second baseman Vaughn Grissom batting .300 and showcasing stellar defensive skills.
• Rafael Devers ceasing to lead the league in errors.
• Masataka Yoshida fulfilling the power potential promised, following his 15-homer season last year.
• Tyler O’Neill avoiding injuries, playing consistently, and rediscovering his All-Star form from 2021.
• Closer Kenley Jansen maintaining elite performance at age 36, assuming he isn’t traded.
• Outfielder Wilyer Abreu continuing to produce at the level suggested by his initial 75 at-bats.
• At least one of the prospects – Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel – not only making their debut this season but also making a significant impact that sets the Red Sox on a path resembling the Orioles’ renaissance.

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We could continue exploring best-case scenarios involving the consistently inconsistent Nick Pivetta, the unpredictable Jarren Duran, and some new bullpen additions, but let’s focus on the points mentioned above.

Is it possible that even a few of those scenarios could unfold? Certainly. Betting against someone like Story might not be wise. Casas, with his impressive second-half performance, could continue his strong numbers, and at least one young pitcher may step up.

However, expecting all of these scenarios to materialize might be living in a fantasy that could still result in a last-place finish.

Having spent two days at Winter Weekend in Springfield and hearing from ownership, management, players, and coaches about the upcoming season, it’s evident that the team is leaning heavily on hope. This is largely because new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has not done enough to acquire talent within the financial constraints set by ownership.

The Red Sox expressed interest in Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto but were outbid by the Dodgers and Mets. They have been cautious in the free-agent pitching market, making a modest move for Giolito. CEO Sam Kennedy acknowledged that the payroll will likely decrease from last year’s $225 million.

Consequently, the team is left to present the best outlook for the players who remain, even though they contributed to a third-last-place finish in four years.

“One of the reasons we were enthusiastic about Craig is his ability to build a pitching pipeline, and hiring pitching coach Andrew Bailey was crucial,” stated chairman Tom Werner. “Last year, we were competitive in the first half, but our pitching depth became a challenge. However, we have confidence in many of our pitchers, and we hope they make significant progress.”

While anything is possible, it’s a significant challenge. Bailey expressed confidence in the current staff, denying the need for reinforcements. However, it’s unclear how the Red Sox have strengthened their rotation by replacing veterans Chris Sale and James Paxton with Giolito, unless Bello, Crawford, and Whitlock make substantial improvements, and Pivetta demonstrates that his success as a long reliever can translate to a starting role.

Bailey, credited with transforming the Giants, expressed a desire for the pitching staff to be seen as among the league’s best. He acknowledged the existing talent but emphasized the potential for improvement.

However, the optimism extends beyond the pitching staff. The Red Sox lost two productive hitters from last year in Justin Turner and Adam Duvall, although Duvall could still return in free agency. Even with a full season of Trevor Story at shortstop, concerns persist about the team’s defense in the rest of the infield and possibly the outfield, particularly on days when Yoshida plays left. In the broader context, there’s no assurance that any of their top prospects will become All-Stars, let alone superstars.

Despite the challenges, the Red Sox find themselves with no alternative but to remain optimistic throughout the entire organization. While positive thinking holds significant power in our everyday lives, it alone cannot help in hitting a fastball.