Ask any fan what he expects from Athletico-PR x Palmeiras for the Libertadores semifinal and receive the almost unanimous answer that Hurricane will play in the retranca. This has a certain logic for some reasons that we will discuss next. But more than that, Hurricane has an absurd record in penalty shootouts, gaining yet another weapon to reach the decision.

Since 2018, every time people from Paraná have decided their future at the lime brand, they have ended up celebrating. A very different story from that of Verdão himself, who recently ended up with a fate involving penalty disputes.

Athletico-PR and Palmeiras face each other for the first leg of the semifinal of the Libertadores of America on August 30, at the Arena da Baixada. A week later, on September 6, the second leg takes place at Allianz Parque, when we can see the first finalist of the 2022 edition come out of penalties.

Why can this match go to penalties?

Until last year, Abel Ferreira had a certain reputation as a “retranqueiro”, mainly in away games. In 2022, the story is different and Verdão has been presenting more offensive football in decisive games as a visitor. Even so, we can see a very truncated game in Paraná, which will make Athletico arrive alive and confident for the return in São Paulo.

This is where the “Felipão factor” comes in. It is not news to anyone that Luiz Felipe Scolari is a specialist in World Cups: there are no less than 18 titles in competitions with knockouts in his career as a coach, which include two Libertadores, four Brazilian Cups and a World Cup, in 2022.

Felipão’s ability to overcome opponents in knockout games has synergy with the Athletico-PR team, which is very strong, competitive and has no problem spending a good part of the game defending itself and exploring any spaces it can. Considering the strength of the rosters, it’s no surprise to imagine that Hurricane will adopt this strategy in both games.

Athletico-PR well on penalties, Palmeiras very badly

The scenario is designed and it is everything that Athletico-PR can dream of. This is because the exploitation of the Hurricane is the opposite.

The team from Paraná has not lost a penalty shootout for four years. The last time this happened was in the 2018 state, when it fell in the semifinals to Rio Branco. Since then, fans have only had good feelings when they see Hurricane on the whitewash mark.

There are eight decisions in a row being won by the rubro-negro, the most exciting of them being the final of the 2018 Copa Sudamericana, where they beat Junior Barranquilla-COL. See them all below:

• Ceará vs Athletico-PR (Brazil Cup 2018 – 3rd phase)
• Athletico-PR vs Bahia (2018 Copa Sudamericana – Quarterfinals)
• Athletico-PR vs Junior Barranquilla (2018 Copa Sudamericana – Final)
• Athletico-PR x Coritiba (Camp. Paranaense 2019 – End of the 2nd round)
• Flamengo x Athletico-PR (Brazil Cup 2019 – Quarterfinals)
• Athletico-PR vs Grêmio (Brazil Cup 2019 – Semifinal)
• Athletico-PR vs Londrina (Camp. Paranaense 2022 – Quarterfinals)

Palmeiras is not coming from a good sequence in penalties, but they can be excited by the last episode, which ended the saga of disappointments of Verdão. By eliminating Atlético-MG in the quarterfinals of the Libertadores, at Allianz Parque, he ended the sequence of five consecutive eliminations on penalties.

Before passing through Galo, Palmeirense’s performance was so bad that it was close to 50% of penalties converted into penalty shootouts in the last two years. Below, see the eliminations that put pressure on Verdão to catch Athletico-PR:

• Palmeiras vs Al Ahly-EGI (Club World Cup 2020 – Semifinal)
• Flamengo vs Palmeiras (Supercopa do Brasil 2021)
• Palmeiras vs Defensia y Justicia (Recopa Sudamericana 2021)
• Palmeiras x CRB (Brazil Cup 2021 – 3rd phase)
• Palmeiras x São Paulo (Brazil Cup 2022 – Round of 16)

How does this affect betting?

With this scenario outlined, how can the bets be influenced? Below, we highlight some markets that may be very interesting to bet on the two Palmeiras x Athletico-PR for the 2022 Libertadores semifinal!

Both Teams To Score: No

We talk about the possibility of both games being truncated, because that’s exactly what Palmeiras and Athletico-PR presented against Atlético-MG and Estudiantes-ARG, respectively, in the quarterfinals.

So, it’s good to bet on matches with few goals and a market that stands out in this scenario is both teams to score. In the first leg, the “No” option is a great bet. If the score for the return game is balanced, it is also worth investing in it in the second leg.

Total goals: Below/Under 2.5

This also applies to both games. If we imagine well-fought games, it’s great to bet that both the first and second legs will end with a maximum of two goals scored in each of them. For the duel at Arena da Baixada, this market can be bet easily. For the return, it depends a lot on what happens in Paraná, but the trend is that it will be an interesting option.

In the quarterfinals, Athletico-PR won 1-0 away and drew 0-0 at home, dispatching Estudiantes. Palmeiras, on the other hand, was 2-2 with Galo, in Mineirão, and did not come out of zero against the miners in São Paulo. That is, of the four games, only one surpassed two goals in the 90 minutes.

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In some bookmakers it is already possible to bet on which of the two will pass to the final of the Libertadores of America. Well, even if he doesn’t specifically talk about penalty shootouts, anyone who believes the game will be decided on penalties can bet on him.

Of course, the odds for Athletico-PR are much higher because there are still 180 minutes until penalties, but if that happens, you can make a very valuable bet. The Hurricane retrospect is encouraging and Palmeiras can feel the pressure of seeing themselves in this situation again.

For the return game, in some bookmakers it will be possible to bet on who will qualify on penalties if the match is heading towards this. Enjoy!