The 66th edition of the Ballon d’Or award, by France Football, will take place on October 17th in Paris. Traditional event that awards the best players in the world of the year, the gala should be a very special night for Karim Benzema, the great favorite to receive the award for best player in the world in 2022.

In addition to the Real Madrid striker, another 29 athletes complete the list of contenders for the Ballon d’Or, including three Brazilians: Vini Jr., Benzema’s partner in the meringues, Casemiro, who played most of the year in the Spanish team, and Fabinho, a Liverpool standout who was defeated precisely by the above trio in the final of the last European Champions League. Other stars that appear in the list are Cristiano Ronaldo, Mohamed Salah, Kevin de Bruyne, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé.

Record holder of Golden Balls, with seven (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2021), Lionel Messi was not among the top 30 in the world in 2022, being absent from the event for the first time since 2005. Partner of the Argentine at Paris Saint-Germain, Neymar, who has been playing a lot since the start of the new season in August, is also not on the list.

Why is Benzema the favourite?

Karim Benzema can already tell his family that he is the next best player in the world. At least that’s what the quotes of this market on the main sports betting sites in the world indicate. The chances of the Frenchman taking the prize are very high, so much so that the odds are hovering around just 1.03 for the number 9 (just to give you an idea, the most favorite after him is quoted around 13.00).

And, in fact, we can say that Benzema’s year was insane. Spanish Championship champion, European Champions League champion, top scorer in both competitions, UEFA Super Cup champion and Best Player in Europe award in 2022. There are 31 games in the year and 27 goals scored. Not to mention the assists that also made all the difference to the success of the last few months.

Do Brazilians have a chance?

It’s hard to think that any Brazilian can beat Karim Benzema, but Vini Jr. he is, perhaps, the one who has the most chance, after all, what he and the Frenchman did to guarantee a successful year for Real Madrid was something we rarely saw. Incidentally, it was from the Brazilian’s feet that the finish came that gave the Spaniards another Champions League title in history.

Vini Jr.

As we mentioned above, Vini Jr. is the Brazilian athlete with the greatest chance of becoming the next best player in the world. Although the odds point to a small chance, a list has recently leaked that indicates that the left winger is in 3rd place in the dispute. We don’t know if it’s true or not, but it shows a very realistic scenario, with shirt number 21 well placed.

What does Vini Jr. have a good placement? Your power of decision. Real Madrid’s season, especially in the victorious walk in the knockout stage of the Champions League, which began in February, was tense. In those moments, if it weren’t for Vini Jr. and Benzema and the history of meringues it would be much shorter.

In addition, he has the super solid performances in La Liga that ensured Real Madrid a smooth title. The Brazilian was very decisive, he carried the team and today he has recognition worthy of what he did for the team in 2022.

casemiro

Casemiro left Real Madrid for Manchester United in July and everything that qualifies him to be among the 2022 Ballon d’Or finalists is what he did for the Spanish club in the first half. If Vinicius Junior and Benzema are the offensive highlights, the ex-São Paulo defensive midfielder is the great defensive highlight of one of the best teams in the world.

With the help of Casemiro, a pillar of midfield support, Real Madrid lost just 7 games from January to May, but two of them were against Manchester City and Chelsea in Champions League matches where Real ended up eliminating the English.

The move to Manchester United, where he is still trying to establish himself and is not even in the starting line-up in most of the games, hinders Casemiro’s chances, which were not that high. Therefore, it is unlikely (almost impossible) to think that he will take home the prize.

Fabinho

Brazilian defensive midfielder Fabinho has been Liverpool’s highlight since arriving at the club and in 2022 he was quite solid on the way to the European Champions League final. He was instrumental in the knockout stage and helped the Reds to make a great return to the Premier League that heated up the title fight against Manchester City.

However, Fabinho and Liverpool were runners-up both in the European competition and in the national championship, and this means that he ends up on the outside in the 2022 Ballon d’Or dispute. Which, in fact, is no demerit for the player, which was one of the highlights of the team.

What also hinders Fabinho is the start of the 2022/23 season. Liverpool started very badly in the Premier League and the Champions League and has even been recovering, but for those who no longer had so many chances for the 2022 Ballon d’Or, these first months of the second half may have ended the Brazilian’s hopes.

How are the odds for Brazilians?

As we said, Benzema is the big favorite for the 2022 Ballon d’Or on October 17th. This makes the odds for the others very high, as is the case with Vinicius Junior. The Frenchman’s strike partner at Real Madrid is quoted at around 34.00 on houses like Betfair and Betano. In others, such as VBet, the Brazilian does not even appear quoted.

And that’s what we see on all the top sites with Casemiro and Fabinho. For bookmakers like Bet365, the chances of the midfielder duo are so small that it is not even possible to bet that they will win the 2022 Golden Ball.

Between Vinicius Junior and Benzema, there are more highly rated players than the Brazilian. Some of them are: Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé.

A fun fact is that Thiago Silva is offered in VBet’s Ballon d’Or 2022 market, despite the Brazilian defender not even being in the top 30 list. In contrast, none of the three Brazilians on the list of 30 appear with odds to be bet.